MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91916621d57a123b3928ef96e092e2e03f51f61cdc1e51e4c2255070aef93a1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 8,985$3,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,414.71 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 50c | 3,337$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.38 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Under | 57c | 2,502$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.23 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 63c | 2,138$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 1,714$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.55 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 62c | 1,578$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.74 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 52c | 1,004$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 65c | 805$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.17 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 69c | 684.96$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.61 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 49c | 637.88$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.69 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 473.95$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 423.84$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.36 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Under | 64c | 382.19$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.59 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 50c | 295.62$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.81 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 48c | 265.64$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 50c | 242.8$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 56c | 221.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 56c | 221.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 56c | 221.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 51c | 209.65$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.73 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 206.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 40c | 168.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Over | 41c | 165.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Under | 50c | 164.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 46c | 163$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 53c | 141.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 39c | 125.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 53c | 121.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 53c | 121.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 53c | 121.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 53c | 119.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 63c | 116.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 50c | 112.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 60c | 104.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…8d60backed Under | 64c | 96.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 64c | 88.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Under | 70c | 84.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…5749backed Under | 65c | 57.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 32c | 53.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 47c | 53.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 50.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 50c | 50.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 60c | 50.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 60c | 50.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 52c | 46.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Over | 42c | 46.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 51c | 42.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 60c | 40.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…5923backed Under | 60c | 39.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd023…fa38backed Over | 27c | 39.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 51c | 37.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Over | 48c | 36.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Under | 54c | 35.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 51c | 34.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 60c | 33.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 63c | 32.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 44c | 27.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 74c | 24.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 57c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 54c | 19.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e7…fca5backed Under | 65c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 64c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland GuardiansChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.