TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Cheeki_Breeki - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cheeki_Breekiof South America Rejects, Cheeki_Breeki
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,160
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,160 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa76…e588backed Cheeki_Breeki64c3,914$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.572277.3%17 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb3…b70fbacked South America Rejects34c2,200$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.312119%4 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-46.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xad2f…ac6abacked Cheeki_Breeki46c2,157$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.262290.9%20 W · 2 L+6.6wins+0.30per pick61cpaid+55.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Cheeki_Breeki47c1,641$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.0367043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed South America Rejects55c1,374$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.223540%14 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked South America Rejects47c1,246$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.8596645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Cheeki_Breeki76c1,128$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.3392056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed South America Rejects51c751.36$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.961,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Cheeki_Breeki33c706.21$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.0229240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb538…7a1ebacked Cheeki_Breeki73c695.62$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.825100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Cheeki_Breeki64c691.52$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.2377458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Cheeki_Breeki49c685.7$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.4586659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked South America Rejects32c670.16$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.3435032.3%113 W · 237 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Cheeki_Breeki47c670.02$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.7745750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed South America Rejects26c629$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.722552.4%118 W · 107 L+26.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked South America Rejects32c620.99$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6269033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d30…11f1backed Cheeki_Breeki62c612.3$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.624353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+24.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Cheeki_Breeki47c601$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.9615342.5%65 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed South America Rejects34c500$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17216250%81 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e0f…3cd7backed South America Rejects60c469.93$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.821330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick57cpaid-52.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed South America Rejects38c453.93$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4616837.5%63 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Cheeki_Breeki46c449.33$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.8118954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x709c…ce30backed South America Rejects57c448.13$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.441758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf4f…f538backed South America Rejects38c400$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536960.9%42 W · 27 L+11.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+40.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x78f4…4a4abacked South America Rejects20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27e9…f09ebacked South America Rejects38c400$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1538253.7%44 W · 38 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed South America Rejects56c399.06$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.439559%233 W · 162 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3304…8313backed Cheeki_Breeki50c388.43$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.448050%40 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked South America Rejects40c380.91$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5215536.1%56 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x566b…ceb9backed South America Rejects55c379.7$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed South America Rejects36c379$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.750247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked South America Rejects50c377.66$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8336759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed South America Rejects55c372.36$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.82853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked South America Rejects31c358$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.127255.6%40 W · 32 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+29.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cheeki_Breeki52c357.95$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.311,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed South America Rejects30c354.47$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6725351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed South America Rejects33c342.97$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.136044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked South America Rejects36c323.08$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.129045.6%41 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2480…c148backed South America Rejects10c317$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed South America Rejects57c310.1$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.066657.6%38 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed South America Rejects59c309.94$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5547046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed South America Rejects36c304$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3412651.6%65 W · 61 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7b39…65adbacked South America Rejects42c300$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+53.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb67…fd46backed Cheeki_Breeki28c299.37$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.559533.7%32 W · 63 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Cheeki_Breeki45c294.94$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.2161548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed South America Rejects25c287.18$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5321748.8%106 W · 111 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3989…0539backed Cheeki_Breeki44c286.36$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.363360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed Cheeki_Breeki45c282.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.643148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed Cheeki_Breeki35c271.6$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.4714832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked South America Rejects54c250$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13516243.2%70 W · 92 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed South America Rejects34c250$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8616453.7%88 W · 76 L+15.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Cheeki_Breeki36c244.01$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5355251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf26f…8f93backed South America Rejects10c232.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.58128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid+32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed South America Rejects30c232$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8720448%98 W · 106 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed South America Rejects30c232$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8730250%151 W · 151 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed South America Rejects30c225$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.758448.8%41 W · 43 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked South America Rejects52c214.2$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.937243.1%31 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Cheeki_Breeki36c198.32$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1829347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Cheeki_Breeki45c191.86$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5213850%69 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed South America Rejects40c191.86$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5865337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1174…059abacked South America Rejects55c186.12$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.33650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d5…dc17backed Cheeki_Breeki73c179.93$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.697376.7%56 W · 17 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed South America Rejects31c179$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5618248.9%89 W · 93 L+15.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x292d…1321backed South America Rejects56c163.67$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.092142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Cheeki_Breeki50c161.36$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.352,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked South America Rejects68c155.44$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.672846.4%13 W · 15 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick66cpaid-27.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked Cheeki_Breeki73c134.77$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.394161%25 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Cheeki_Breeki26c129.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9764123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d28…62c8backed South America Rejects52c123.45$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.522142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Cheeki_Breeki42c119.4$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.811,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Cheeki_Breeki46c119.12$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7425253.2%134 W · 118 L+20.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked South America Rejects62c105.97$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7619951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Cheeki_Breeki46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5443738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked South America Rejects53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5345052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked South America Rejects68c98.08$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6966848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf52f…b2f5backed South America Rejects55c90.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.923050%15 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Cheeki_Breeki44c87.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.241037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Cheeki_Breeki30c84.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.758250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed South America Rejects51c77.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.612449.2%61 W · 63 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed South America Rejects36c76.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6535430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Cheeki_Breeki20c71.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.995841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked South America Rejects62c70.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4433854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7a…6c9abacked South America Rejects39c69.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2417644.9%79 W · 97 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Cheeki_Breeki32c65.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1237223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8c68…570cbacked Cheeki_Breeki28c64.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.172748.1%13 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed South America Rejects56c61.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.41560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed South America Rejects35c60.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1450444%222 W · 282 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc582…853cbacked South America Rejects19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41030%3 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+74.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb23…0655backed Cheeki_Breeki46c53.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked South America Rejects39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked South America Rejects57c51.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.228846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7b83…0a52backed South America Rejects79c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed South America Rejects67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.71,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81fe…4089backed South America Rejects66c48.96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3113262.9%83 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb4…9ed0backed Cheeki_Breeki53c48.59$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.844360.5%26 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Cheeki_Breeki48c45.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7244645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1676…ab19backed South America Rejects52c44.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.145545.5%25 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked South America Rejects52c44.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9122740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0d…37a2backed South America Rejects58c42.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a4…fe24backed Cheeki_Breeki49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.