Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb081adb2ec462f6d937f0752eb89f6f417f7572a25fb36500ee58dc2a400b680
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 25c | 315.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 41c | 237.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.41 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 12c | 190.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 127.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…7521backed Yes | 41c | 123.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 37c | 96.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 41c | 72.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 65.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 65.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 61.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 59.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 61c | 47.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 55c | 45.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 44.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 46c | 43.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 43.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 39.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 54c | 38.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 51c | 37.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 35.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…95bebacked Yes | 54c | 35.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed Yes | 77c | 32.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 63c | 28.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 66c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 24.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 20.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 18.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.