Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb082936b077c068cbc36c1f45fef70d1636fcf4fa1dfe3947ae6d74f5de40fa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 53c | 2,050$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.46 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 24c | 1,752$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.3 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4244…03a6backed Under | 41c | 975.61$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.61 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 59c | 799.98$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.99 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Over | 4c | 635.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 607.7$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.83 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 18c | 584.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 62c | 492.68$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 464.33$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.49 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…2dedbacked Over | 47c | 390.1$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Over | 10c | 371.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 12c | 370.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 47c | 355.63$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.48 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 28c | 268.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 52c | 236$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 60c | 184.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 38c | 173.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 40c | 169.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 156.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 48c | 139.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 48c | 139.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 138.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 73c | 129.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 47c | 127.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 47c | 127.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 47c | 127.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 47c | 127.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 47c | 127.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 47c | 127.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 40c | 92.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 47c | 87.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7954…665bbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 49c | 81.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 40c | 66.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 48c | 58.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 58c | 51.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 54c | 46.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 40c | 41.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…04cfbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed Under | 65c | 38.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…2075backed Over | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 54c | 27.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 54c | 25.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 55c | 25.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 43c | 24.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 47c | 24.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 57c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e5…ba5fbacked Over | 72c | 14.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 67cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.