Premier League · resolved market
Will Wolves vs. Man City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb09480cf69af9849e035d15feae3de1fde3c8eb8f89b7274c076419a63cb0a3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc43c…e9e8backed Yes | 17c | 10,043$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9e…0a21backed Yes | 5c | 2,050$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 15c | 1,664$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.53 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 62c | 1,375$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.18 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 72c | 1,007$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.32 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 14c | 338.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 48c | 209.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 36.5%57 W · 99 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…ef44backed Yes | 64c | 174.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 69c | 172.84$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…8820backed Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…6677backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Yes | 25c | 79.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 75c | 79.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d65…a86bbacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 53c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 18c | 67.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 16c | 66.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…218fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…3431backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…c88cbacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf4…f4edbacked Yes | 40c | 42.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…10fbbacked Yes | 44c | 41.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wolves vs. Man City end in a draw?this page
- Will Man City win on 2024-10-20?Yes won
- Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.