Premier League · resolved market
Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7367ff604adea1e86db93879899e077d098173d1e84e7377879a1e1084ce843b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked Yes | 9c | 77,440$6,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,969.58 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…ce9dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,374$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 9c | 2,741$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.15 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 8c | 1,423$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 9c | 996.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…4cc5backed Yes | 9c | 800$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 10c | 413.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed Yes | 3c | 373$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 9c | 333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687f…b05fbacked Yes | 20c | 275.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 270$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…cf42backed Yes | 11c | 257.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c3…5227backed Yes | 9c | 256$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 8c | 221.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 9c | 221.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…3431backed Yes | 9c | 211.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf650…577fbacked Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb9…6219backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…336dbacked Yes | 8c | 148.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 19c | 139.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…c1febacked Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Yes | 15c | 118.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…478dbacked Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Yes | 27c | 93.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…3c9ebacked Yes | 13c | 78.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 75c | 21.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20?this page
- Will Man City win on 2024-10-20?Yes won
- Will Wolves vs. Man City end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.