Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Bearcats (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0a0f29c41c6bbc954f86e3c1b4e7260364743e71ddbf344d1b22cd8f48c3111
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Bearcatsof Cincinnati Bearcats, UCF Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $382,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $553,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 57c | 171,090$96,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,222.22 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed UCF Knights | 43c | 119,007$51,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,571.01 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked UCF Knights | 47c | 30,000$14,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,098.11 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UCF Knights | 45c | 15,145$6,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,765.08 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked UCF Knights | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…945abacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 52c | 3,159$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.46 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed UCF Knights | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UCF Knights | 46c | 1,130$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.54 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked UCF Knights | 43c | 943.33$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.63 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed UCF Knights | 46c | 689$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.94 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed UCF Knights | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed UCF Knights | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked UCF Knights | 51c | 246.86$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed UCF Knights | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked UCF Knights | 49c | 124$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed UCF Knights | 46c | 119.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed UCF Knights | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed UCF Knights | 48c | 72.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 52c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked UCF Knights | 46c | 54.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed UCF Knights | 45c | 53.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked UCF Knights | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 52c | 24.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +6.8wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…218cbacked UCF Knights | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 54c | 20.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed UCF Knights | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Bearcats (-3.5)this page
- UCF Knights vs. Cincinnati BearcatsCincinnati Bearcats won
- UCF Knights vs. Cincinnati Bearcats: O/U 145.5Over won
- UCF Knights vs. Cincinnati Bearcats: O/U 147.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.