Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Yuno Kitahara
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0cb4d68e4cbce3e97a3b636b7a567147f76a89ee817c916dc0fcd9c182b5135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hikaru Satoof Hikaru Sato, Yuno Kitahara
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Yuno Kitahara | 40c | 1,999$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Hikaru Sato | 64c | 1,920$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.37 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…71b4backed Yuno Kitahara | 52c | 1,144$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 200 | 45%90 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Yuno Kitahara | 36c | 1,119$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.85 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yuno Kitahara | 12c | 527.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Yuno Kitahara | 23c | 450$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 910 | 51%464 W · 446 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Yuno Kitahara | 28c | 411.64$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hikaru Sato | 57c | 212.15$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yuno Kitahara | 11c | 210.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Hikaru Sato | 60c | 172.21$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e3…8c11backed Hikaru Sato | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…20e4backed Yuno Kitahara | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Yuno Kitahara | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hikaru Sato | 59c | 123.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Yuno Kitahara | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…022bbacked Hikaru Sato | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 145 | 31.7%46 W · 99 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff87…f5f7backed Yuno Kitahara | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yuno Kitahara | 23c | 87.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yuno Kitahara | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 221 | 13.6%30 W · 191 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yuno Kitahara | 28c | 82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Yuno Kitahara | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hikaru Sato | 59c | 67.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hikaru Sato | 79c | 57.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed Hikaru Sato | 64c | 57.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…335fbacked Hikaru Sato | 77c | 50.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 242 | 74%179 W · 63 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yuno Kitahara | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Hikaru Sato | 47c | 40.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…22ebbacked Yuno Kitahara | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 405 | 27.2%110 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Hikaru Sato | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed Hikaru Sato | 76c | 30.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Hikaru Sato | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.