South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0d0d3167a0129d725ccf3335b523efb01132e447c725507d3cde7b31bd96b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CR Flamengoof CR Flamengo, CA Mineiro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed CR Flamengo | 41c | 1,223$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.54 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x973f…dc4ebacked CA Mineiro | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…67e7backed CA Mineiro | 74c | 573$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…32f8backed CR Flamengo | 74c | 285.48$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CR Flamengo | 35c | 220.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.09 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked CA Mineiro | 74c | 218.35$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed CR Flamengo | 24c | 216.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CA Mineiro | 66c | 200.37$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.25 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked CR Flamengo | 30c | 158.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked CA Mineiro | 68c | 126.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed CA Mineiro | 57c | 85.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked CR Flamengo | 23c | 83.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed CR Flamengo | 23c | 83.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CA Mineiro | 73c | 75.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed CA Mineiro | 56c | 45.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked CR Flamengo | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed CA Mineiro | 72c | 41.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked CA Mineiro | 72c | 41.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked CA Mineiro | 72c | 41.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…6596backed CA Mineiro | 72c | 40.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed CA Mineiro | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked CA Mineiro | 45c | 32.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d9…4d7ebacked CA Mineiro | 74c | 21.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked CA Mineiro | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed CA Mineiro | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked CR Flamengo | 59c | 17.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked CA Mineiro | 72c | 15.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed CA Mineiro | 73c | 14.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)this page
- CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.