South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17356be2ca35c1bbbee40c4bc7b7ab74c2120ec3a3d504b9f383761e02fb68d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 45c | 1,212$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.24 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 51c | 951.57$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.27 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 28c | 647.14$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.13 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 15c | 467.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…d041backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 60c | 212.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b9…c25cbacked Over | 78c | 196.79$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 74c | 179.25$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 45c | 166.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…32f8backed Over | 47c | 156.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 151.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 134.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 38c | 103.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed Under | 44c | 103.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…f29cbacked Over | 48c | 81.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 40c | 72.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 72.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 57c | 63.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Under | 47c | 62.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…6d0dbacked Under | 33c | 61.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 55.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 40c | 49.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 44c | 45.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed Over | 63c | 45.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 43.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 27c | 42.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…f13cbacked Under | 39c | 32.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 63c | 27.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 49c | 27.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 44c | 23.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…a027backed Over | 78c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5this page
- CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.