Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0d6979492b25e632d4f6adcea5d8302322e76965ae00b53a9504cdac75412b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 710.71$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 482.18$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 64c | 397.11$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.09 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 34c | 213.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 200.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 185.68$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…b757backed Yes | 30c | 172.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 7c | 168.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 20c | 165.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 149.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 39c | 140.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 138.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 114.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked Yes | 18c | 112.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 76c | 100.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 95.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 95.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 63c | 91.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 88.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 33c | 84.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 26c | 75.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 36c | 72.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 63c | 69.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 70c | 61.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 60.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 49.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 48.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…84c7backed Yes | 51c | 47.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 37c | 46.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 67c | 42.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 42.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 64c | 41.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 33c | 40.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 77c | 38.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbb…9d0dbacked Yes | 36c | 35.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 34.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 65c | 33.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 65c | 28.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 27.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 67c | 26.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked No | 70c | 24.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 60c | 24.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 44c | 24.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 23.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 49c | 23.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 69c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 76c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 20.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 80c | 19.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 76c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 65c | 15.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…978bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.