Music · resolved market
Lana Del Rey divorce in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0dbfb9ef3e74e11605bbf68f6b6f08be87a0fde45ccfe63b3c0f4ef9f444f5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,061$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb53…0412backed Yes | 3c | 686.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 621.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…c146backed Yes | 17c | 605.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d32…4911backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 316.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…8304backed Yes | 33c | 301.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 264.02$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 69c | 193$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 15c | 165.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…ea62backed Yes | 18c | 163.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…7493backed Yes | 25c | 155$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 17c | 144.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 21c | 94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…578fbacked Yes | 18c | 88.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…81e0backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 67c | 73.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…d20ebacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b66…e90abacked No | 80c | 60.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 74c | 34.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…42fcbacked No | 79c | 20.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.