Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0e7a8291ae3d85cb544ed2dbe1ee4add3a8402e67d5658c14baa04287c5fa19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked Yes | 70c | 5,187$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 2c | 3,099$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 2,272$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.27 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 2c | 1,904$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,563$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.16 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 71c | 805.8$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.26 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6febbacked Yes | 2c | 495$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,276.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 17c | 390.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 327.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 22c | 299.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 13c | 142.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 125$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…64ebbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e7…631fbacked Yes | 49c | 43.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%?this page
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% or more?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 10% and 15%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 15% and 20%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 20% and 25%?No won
- Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 5% and 10%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.