Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0f32228874dc76e92f407d41d65a3fc45a0662ae5b1ae1403f6a0a1290f0850
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 18c | 3,412$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.78 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 10c | 1,616$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.65 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 13c | 1,223$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.37 | 419 | 27%113 W · 306 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 652.94$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.53 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 558.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a34…92cdbacked Yes | 8c | 417.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 18c | 377.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 17c | 351.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 283.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 67c | 268.74$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 10c | 254.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 148 | 28.4%42 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 18c | 253.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 10c | 236.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 18c | 218.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 25c | 202.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 182$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 8c | 178.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 577 | 44.9%259 W · 318 L | +37.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 16c | 162$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 154.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,065 | 35.1%374 W · 691 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 16c | 145$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 135$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 10c | 133.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 147 | 31.3%46 W · 101 L | +14.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 125.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 19c | 119.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 18c | 112.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 102.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 27c | 100.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 69c | 99.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27d7…ddc7backed Yes | 12c | 88.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 28c | 85.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 62.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 54.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…daa5backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 79c | 26.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 73c | 24.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 72c | 22.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 77c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 73c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 79c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.