Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ee6e917fa7c5352ace58dd3e3ae3718cb90f9aef841c981f202756dfebc34dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 39c | 2,858$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.85 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 65c | 1,421$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.5 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,192$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.76 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 23c | 754.68$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.53 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 33c | 673.9$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.01 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 591.44$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.36 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 60c | 503.66$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.19 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 49c | 499.98$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.16 | 419 | 27%113 W · 306 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 481.25$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.67 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 57c | 439.62$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.69 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 413.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 51c | 330.98$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.11 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcc…5f1bbacked Yes | 76c | 329.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 64c | 311.3$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.65 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 80c | 310.26$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 148 | 87.8%130 W · 18 L | +28.3wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 34c | 269.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.91 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 193.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 186.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 185$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 20c | 159.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 62c | 154$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1ae7backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 149.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 24c | 145.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 41c | 121.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 37c | 118.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 53c | 118.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 31c | 116$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 34c | 113.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 57c | 112.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 34c | 110.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 110.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 109.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 46c | 109$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 100.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 100.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 577 | 44.9%259 W · 318 L | +37.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…e520backed No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 35c | 99.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 480 | 39.8%191 W · 289 L | +31.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 99.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 97.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 61c | 89.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 45c | 88.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 85.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 63c | 84.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 321 | 49.8%160 W · 161 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 27c | 83.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 70c | 82.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 18c | 80.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 37c | 78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 66c | 76.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked No | 22c | 71.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 192 | 9.9%19 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 57c | 70.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 30c | 67.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe369…af6ebacked Yes | 42c | 66.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes | 33c | 64.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 57c | 63.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 63c | 62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 45c | 61.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 21c | 61.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 61.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 60.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 36c | 60.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +58.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed Yes | 35c | 59.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 41c | 58.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 39c | 55.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | +37.7wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…9633backed No | 66c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 42c | 48.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 68c | 45.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 56c | 41.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 41.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 62c | 39.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 64c | 38.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 54c | 38.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 485 | 46%223 W · 262 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 38.1%119 W · 193 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 54c | 33.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 33.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 53c | 32.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 207 | 36.7%76 W · 131 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 63c | 31.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 33c | 30.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked No | 66c | 30.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4118…d2ffbacked No | 51c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…357bbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.