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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,414 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes39c2,858$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.8517224.4%42 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No65c1,421$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.582742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes49c1,192$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.766659.1%39 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No23c754.68$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.531,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes33c673.9$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.0162960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No57c591.44$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.364,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb106…13f4backed No60c503.66$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1914455.6%80 W · 64 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes49c499.98$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.1641927%113 W · 306 L-1.8wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No55c481.25$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.672,50669.7%1,747 W · 759 L+78.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No57c439.62$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6927944.4%124 W · 155 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No22c413.79$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.124,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes51c330.98$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.1181124.8%201 W · 610 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fcc…5f1bbacked Yes76c329.73$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No64c311.3$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.659652.1%50 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes80c310.26$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5414887.8%130 W · 18 L+28.3wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes34c269.56$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9125158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6235…7a5ebacked No66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322075%15 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c193.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4912,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No22c186.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.171,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No62c185$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.65,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No20c159.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.152,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c80…c3ddbacked No62c154$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.246666.7%44 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b81…1ae7backed No50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No61c150$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes50c149.78$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3790155.7%502 W · 399 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd456…63a4backed Yes48c145.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.836643.9%29 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed No24c145.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2848446.1%223 W · 261 L+45.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes41c121.35$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0420851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No66c120$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.21,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes37c118.69$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8258247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No53c118.65$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8818350.8%93 W · 90 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes31c116$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.215327.5%42 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No34c113.15$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.313,20153.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L-101.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1d…56a3backed No57c112.73$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.066651.5%34 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes34c110.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0826253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No57c110.07$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.385,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No62c110$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.051,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No59c109.28$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.641,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes46c109$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.121,24630%374 W · 872 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes41c100.95$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6654738.6%211 W · 336 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No57c100.21$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.565,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1057744.9%259 W · 318 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9256…e520backed No49c99.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes35c99.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5348039.8%191 W · 289 L+31.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+34.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No17c99.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.056,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c97.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.255,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No61c89.48$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5824248.8%118 W · 124 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes45c88.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.291,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c85.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.594,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No63c84.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5532149.8%160 W · 161 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No27c83.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.292,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No70c82.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.938956.2%50 W · 39 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No18c80.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.362,28014.7%336 W · 1,944 L+51.5wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes37c78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3838346.7%179 W · 204 L+16.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No66c76.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9213351.9%69 W · 64 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked No22c71.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.471929.9%19 W · 173 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No57c70.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4055942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No30c67.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.312,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe369…af6ebacked Yes42c66.56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes33c64.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.072222.7%5 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No57c63.81$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0618947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6199…ece4backed No63c62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.016672.7%48 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes40c62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.252,75729.7%819 W · 1,938 L-1.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No45c61.73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.512,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No21c61.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.062,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No24c61.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.892,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No66c60.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2899757.2%570 W · 427 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes36c60.32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5718157.5%104 W · 77 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.885548.7%416 W · 439 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca4…6aa2backed No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.614240.1%57 W · 85 L-11.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes36c59.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3941147%193 W · 218 L+58.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+59.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x12df…64d2backed Yes35c59.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.881241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+72.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes41c58.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.527440.5%30 W · 44 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes39c55.89$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0666834.3%229 W · 439 L+37.7wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0a2…9633backed No66c54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.472365.2%15 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.58236.6%30 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,03231.3%949 W · 2,083 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No42c48.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1298651.1%504 W · 482 L-49.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked No68c45.08$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6833867.8%229 W · 109 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No56c41.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5357559.7%343 W · 232 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c41.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.415,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No62c39.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7914154.6%77 W · 64 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c3…92fcbacked No64c38.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521352.6%112 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No54c38.54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8148546%223 W · 262 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No70c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.52,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed No59c33.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031238.1%119 W · 193 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No54c33.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0716958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes57c33.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4712,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes39c33.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.333148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No53c32.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1424570.6%173 W · 72 L+22.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No57c32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2820736.7%76 W · 131 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No63c31.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049259.6%293 W · 199 L+22.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,41765.2%924 W · 493 L+59.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No33c30.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.342,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked No66c30.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204936.7%18 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4118…d2ffbacked No51c30.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ccd…357bbacked Yes56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.052653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.481457.5%468 W · 346 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,03235.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L+42.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.