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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,328 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a81…6cf9backed No69c1,227$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.5617224.4%42 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes32c575.97$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1113127.5%36 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No68c423.07$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.599652.1%50 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes26c400$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.492839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes29c361.93$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7481124.8%201 W · 610 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No71c356.31$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.921,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes37c315.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0441927%113 W · 306 L-1.8wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd456…63a4backed Yes31c227.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706643.9%29 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes37c190.2$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes33c188.97$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8448446.1%223 W · 261 L+45.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes33c183.61$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.735,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No78c175$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.952,04361.7%1,261 W · 782 L+2.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No71c174.44$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.591,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes30c171.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2155942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No70c171.19$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.652,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No71c155.23$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.691,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes31c154.49$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2157654.3%313 W · 263 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes30c154.05$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.225,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No70c153.05$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3224570.6%173 W · 72 L+22.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes28c136.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0118350.8%93 W · 90 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c125$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5512,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes24c118.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5549951.7%258 W · 241 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c118.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7710,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c117.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.162,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No73c103.55$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.582,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes31c102$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6258053.4%310 W · 270 L-26.4wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes23c101.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4353548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd73e…4b96backed Yes29c101.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.314447.7%21 W · 23 L+8.2wins+0.19per pick29cpaid+59.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes29c100.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0382742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.662539.7%248 W · 377 L+28.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6980…2194backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3146559.1%275 W · 190 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes39c99.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4118542.2%78 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x550e…94dbbacked Yes30c98.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.485944.1%26 W · 33 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+32.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes28c98.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2818157.5%104 W · 77 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No75c93.22$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.362960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf8a…627cbacked Yes34c90$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes36c89.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3619755.8%110 W · 87 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c88.4$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.765,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes37c84.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.234156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No72c81.15$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5516958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes47c80.27$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.732,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes30c79.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.121,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206535.4%23 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes22c72.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.098236.6%30 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes30c72.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.762222.7%5 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes27c72.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6266834.3%229 W · 439 L+37.7wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a34…92cdbacked Yes31c69.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.47728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No65c68.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.875,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No64c66.55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2135283.8%295 W · 57 L+39.0wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes33c62.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4312134.7%42 W · 79 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16da…daa5backed No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes30c55.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.799757.2%570 W · 427 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes21c55.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.422,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes23c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6592334.1%315 W · 608 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No72c53.68$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.154,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No73c52.86$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2612,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x8710…f9c7backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes25c49.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.737027.8%103 W · 267 L-0.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0018…83a4backed No61c49.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.137630.3%23 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes23c48.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1946736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No68c47.87$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.43,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c46.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.74,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes26c46.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.062,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked No70c45.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6233867.8%229 W · 109 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes30c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes27c44.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1219336.3%70 W · 123 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No69c42.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2698651.1%504 W · 482 L-49.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0022…c966backed No74c40.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.465269.2%36 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No72c38.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.822,28358.3%1,331 W · 952 L+85.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe88f…c4febacked No70c37.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.311643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No74c37.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.62,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes35c37.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No76c37.28$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9525158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab3e…18efbacked Yes28c37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.555740.4%23 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No70c36.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.972,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e56…3aebbacked No72c34.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.68988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick72cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes39c33.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.113241.7%55 W · 77 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No71c32.73$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.491,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.961,71060.8%1,039 W · 671 L-22.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes34c31.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No70c31.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.312,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1263247.3%299 W · 333 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615675.6%118 W · 38 L-0.8wins0.00per pick76cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e27…d5babacked Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No80c29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.88061.3%49 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…2541backed No72c27.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.712479.2%19 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick69cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No71c27.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.961,15857.1%661 W · 497 L-45.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed No76c26.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1423248.3%112 W · 120 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.55,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No65c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.781457.5%468 W · 346 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0a2…9633backed No69c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.52365.2%15 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No69c22.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.952,22659.1%1,316 W · 910 L+110.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No75c22.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c21.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.264,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No68c20.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.632,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed No76c20.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9226253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No71c20.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.851,12855.4%625 W · 503 L-30.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.