Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $56.5B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb10a821023200b18eb525fec09a896fe4816815ea7e8bd693c01f6d8f0a53c83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d23…28d4backed Yes | 41c | 2,060$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 62c | 626.88$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 59c | 609.69$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 36c | 500$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 61c | 400$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 51c | 337.07$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 54c | 296.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +294.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 59c | 150$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 141$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +604.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 8c | 129.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 109$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +152%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…901abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 98.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 41c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 26c | 54.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 60c | 50.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…7be3backed No | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +141.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed No | 73c | 40.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Yes | 45c | 27.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…6900backed No | 66c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…ad18backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $56.5B?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $52B?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $53.5B?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $55B?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $58B?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.