Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $55B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34c45f31b06a903e1f3be55f9aa6e8674467689ec61bdc1dca0a63912ee3693c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8469…dab0backed Yes | 25c | 391.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 75c | 220$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 166.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 31c | 154.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 36c | 139.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 52c | 109.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 52c | 108.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…901abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +152%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…7be3backed Yes | 62c | 43.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +141.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 50c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 57c | 30.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 52c | 27.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed No | 51c | 24.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 21.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb96b…ddefbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $55B?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $52B?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $53.5B?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $56.5B?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $58B?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.