Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AS Roma beat Frankfurt?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb10e68f8ccead0b6af8f84410845efe8b18443ed718a42827435a5b4621c5b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 43c | 382.81$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.68 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 27c | 381.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 69c | 365$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked No | 44c | 189.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed No | 51c | 187.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…20f1backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…4496backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 43c | 99.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe815…93f4backed Yes | 57c | 82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 43c | 67.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked No | 46c | 54.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d1…2056backed Yes | 56c | 53.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…6d30backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…27fbbacked No | 44c | 42.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe847…f8bdbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb206…4d7bbacked Yes | 54c | 38.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe38…2fe0backed Yes | 56c | 35.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…2390backed Yes | 57c | 35.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe110…0f5dbacked Yes | 55c | 33.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2556…cc02backed Yes | 55c | 30.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78c…affebacked No | 46c | 29.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0e…f065backed Yes | 54c | 29.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4838…22a6backed Yes | 55c | 29.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…fe68backed No | 44c | 28.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d6…3b01backed Yes | 56c | 26.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…02f4backed No | 44c | 26.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…0731backed No | 46c | 24.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…7964backed Yes | 55c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…102cbacked No | 45c | 24.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…315bbacked Yes | 55c | 22.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1a…2585backed Yes | 57c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4689…4d8abacked Yes | 75c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607b…b359backed Yes | 55c | 18.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…c17abacked Yes | 78c | 13.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Roma beat Frankfurt?this page
- Will Frankfurt beat AS Roma?No won
- Will the match between AS Roma and Frankfurt end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.