Mls · resolved market
Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb136991cb08d4a860f7fc1275fe291ea4e5bf387ffd2dc97ca6196f3db71a7bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 79c | 4,476$3,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 69c | 4,039$2,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.98 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 3,548$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.58 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 21c | 1,922$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.63 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 1,526$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.42 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 10c | 972.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 862.57$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.78 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 13c | 640.82$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 3c | 427.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 29c | 329.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 11c | 261$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 21c | 151$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 23c | 137.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 69c | 112$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 109.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 37c | 102.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 28c | 101.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 24c | 77.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 16c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…f409backed Over | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 25c | 61.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 21c | 59.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 21c | 59.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…5966backed Over | 27c | 40.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed Under | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 78cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Over | 46c | 21.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5this page
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: Atlanta United FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: Atlanta United FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 0.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: Sporting Kansas City O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.