Fifa International · resolved market
Greece vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1607cfe0bf14e253947d27d1eaa5f42e8605a6f13cc377745dececc8ed0b1d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 24c | 50,000$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 76c | 48,377$36,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,610.38 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 1,477$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.83 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 651.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 78c | 576.17$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 77c | 457.02$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under | 77c | 406$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 20c | 401.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…d8adbacked Under | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 23c | 205$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 21c | 191.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…da1abacked Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 22c | 101.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Under | 76c | 87.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…800bbacked Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 18c | 73.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Under | 77c | 57.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…87e5backed Under | 80c | 35.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 77c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Greece vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5this page
- Greece vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Greece vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Under won
- Greece vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Under won
- Greece vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Greece (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Greece won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.