Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb16b19a726a006380a50c1025d4ef001762b1d5efe887979326b5dd4b6ff1625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,240 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 19c | 1,229$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.56 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 76c | 1,181$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.07 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 65c | 692.31$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 36c | 546.9$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.94 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 445.71$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 26c | 295$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…9372backed Over | 35c | 268.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…c95cbacked Over | 80c | 242.25$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…f856backed Under | 27c | 180.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 16c | 106$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 40c | 75.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 23c | 70.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 26c | 66.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 75c | 66.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Under | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 24c | 59.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 57c | 56.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 74c | 53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…a489backed Over | 63c | 39.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 65c | 23.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 63c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 60c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…bf13backed Under | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 71cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf054…d148backed Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 78c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.