Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a021c9b4b9747e119d358394333e1017493a2e31156b2623d24886fd8d6b524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,447 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked No | 49c | 3,800$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Yes | 53c | 3,590$1,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.36 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Yes | 53c | 2,700$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 2,089$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.95 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 47c | 1,215$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.81 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 47c | 690.25$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.1 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked No | 49c | 565.31$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 51c | 315$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 52c | 277.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.48 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Yes | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 50c | 206$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…8526backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 53c | 136$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 47c | 86.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 52c | 74.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…cfc3backed Yes | 52c | 74.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 73c | 44.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 54c | 37.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…fbb1backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 46c | 34.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…9a7fbacked Yes | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Yes | 52c | 20.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.