Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7100d7a70caf58e756bd806b836d48a43a52e0dc1b34ecd160e7ea0e875ef6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,668 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 3,116$2,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,236.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…ba75backed Over | 29c | 1,527$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 9c | 1,243$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.99 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 69c | 1,038$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.66 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Over | 26c | 799.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.99 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Over | 53c | 367.57$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x140d…a937backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 248.46$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 9c | 242.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.67 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 47c | 193$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 52c | 154.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 45c | 151.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 39c | 128.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 28c | 118$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 49c | 99.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 82.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Over | 51c | 58.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 52cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked Over | 73c | 56.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 41c | 46.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 31c | 46.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01b3…52debacked Under | 48c | 38.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…5587backed Over | 38c | 32.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…6443backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 75c | 15.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.