Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1889d94908a0ac72d455fdd4f187cf0b8061e1440d84d017963c47a7f6f69fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 435.66$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 375.33$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 42c | 297.87$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.77 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 209.03$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 42c | 144.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 136.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 121.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 116.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 113.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 57c | 109.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 53c | 102.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 18c | 87.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 80.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 45c | 79.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 78.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 62.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 57c | 54.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 47c | 41.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 45c | 41.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 57c | 36.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 49c | 34.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 32.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 40c | 29.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 29.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 45c | 29.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 26.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 44c | 26.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 43c | 26.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 46c | 26.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 56c | 25.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 58c | 20.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.