Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5a5ecfd8da30242338d71571d49d5a3d9d6064d53d2c67bc1b1fedc38fff01c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 362.22$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 31c | 337.82$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 286.86$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.07 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 159.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 21c | 149.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 113.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 72c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 78c | 108$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 104.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 101.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadac…aeb2backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 97.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes | 31c | 95.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 94.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 90.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 71c | 86.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 30c | 71.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 66.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 65.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 28c | 54.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 53.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 52.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 54c | 38.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 38.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 54c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 70c | 35.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 28.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 73c | 27.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 69c | 27.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 26.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 22.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 70c | 19.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 62c | 19.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 18.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.