Music · resolved market
Will "Bully - Kanye West" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1d1eff01be6af6623d3f73037029d832b7fb50a1f7bd67dfacf20c7bb9bae00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8188…0667backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,023$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.66 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…13d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,853$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…8ba5backed Yes | 3c | 1,587$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…7d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,551$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…ebe5backed Yes | 16c | 942.05$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1807…602ebacked Yes | 5c | 662.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 11c | 658.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…0117backed Yes | 10c | 647.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c6…b581backed Yes | 17c | 595.02$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 7c | 491.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 469.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked Yes | 8c | 430$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc442…8d9cbacked Yes | 21c | 375$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed No | 50c | 370$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbb…d6abbacked Yes | 8c | 249.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 74c | 248.57$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…8c04backed Yes | 12c | 240.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 7c | 226.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 209.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 17c | 204.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…0d92backed Yes | 11c | 184.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 60c | 182.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed Yes | 38c | 182.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 57c | 174.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 41c | 150.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 18c | 145.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 10c | 139.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3cebacked Yes | 28c | 88.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 43c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…6747backed Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed No | 69c | 58.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…eb36backed No | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…1c02backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 79c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Bully - Kanye West" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11?this page
- Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.