Music · resolved market
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30297ee710b75267804f12092bd862f114d65df47cdf6b9f12290137a684a83d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 6c | 4,445$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 12c | 793.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…7d0dbacked No | 17c | 629.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 13c | 618.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…00e7backed No | 11c | 533.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…c8d2backed No | 35c | 414.5$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…3f1dbacked Yes | 65c | 414.5$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…7b23backed No | 11c | 402.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 12c | 350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 341.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 71c | 293.27$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 17c | 270.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 266.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 19c | 245.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9097…b5d1backed Yes | 75c | 194.69$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…c3a4backed No | 25c | 194.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 8c | 181.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 14c | 144.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 18c | 142.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked No | 11c | 137.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…510dbacked No | 12c | 91.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…6747backed Yes | 77c | 90.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed Yes | 40c | 84.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 35c | 81.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e2…6afcbacked Yes | 63c | 54.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…d99abacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 49.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfb…9ebabacked Yes | 63c | 45.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 77c | 41.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed No | 27c | 38.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884e…1e52backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes | 76c | 22.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d541backed Yes | 68c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11?this page
- Will "Bully - Kanye West" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.