Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1d6fc1e011d8c8497e4e94aeb9351be4f6f399662de78cf790ae9a070a641c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 31c | 5,473$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,795.25 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 4,306$2,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,864.11 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 70c | 1,638$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.42 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 25c | 1,131$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.52 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 3c | 1,050$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 65c | 987.59$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.66 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 31c | 934.84$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.3 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 849.17$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.82 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…e32ebacked Over | 32c | 602.03$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 4c | 540$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 69c | 421.76$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.01 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 70c | 416.18$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 16c | 412$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.58 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 43c | 314$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.54 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 70c | 280.64$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 50c | 266.68$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.55 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 37c | 252.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 69c | 219.74$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 191$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.76 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 69c | 181$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 69c | 181$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 68c | 180$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 30c | 159.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 68c | 126.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 35c | 109.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 27c | 70.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 58c | 58.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 69c | 46.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a01…c0f7backed Under | 69c | 42.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Under | 69c | 39.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b692backed Under | 69c | 36.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 69c | 35.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 53c | 29.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 68c | 27.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 70c | 15.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.