TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,867
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,429

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,867 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over53c18,298$9,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,579.4319044.7%85 W · 105 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under46c8,886$4,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,103.6926345.2%119 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over53c8,319$4,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,934.0827837.8%105 W · 173 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a12…d3febacked Under50c7,760$3,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,875.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f09…9312backed Over52c3,701$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under47c3,542$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.497146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5002100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Under49c2,774$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.283452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under55c2,067$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.423,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb52c…9fd4backed Under47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under49c1,540$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.65050%25 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70511854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under49c1,189$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.618946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under46c1,137$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.567037.1%26 W · 44 L-11.4wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-35.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Over54c1,092$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.287364.4%47 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over24c1,004$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.755337.7%20 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x768b…bf0fbacked Under49c984.26$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.29616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Under48c968.8$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.021752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over52c929.05$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.366662.1%41 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Under52c747.32$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Over50c655.09$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.556939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under47c600$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28215858.2%92 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x639c…31e2backed Under50c583.91$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.971631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Under48c508.62$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2405464.8%35 W · 19 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over51c478.47$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.253046.4%246 W · 284 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Over51c398.97$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked Under49c394$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.06683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under72c368.4$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.3771443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6aa1…a420backed Over51c314.02$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.872951.7%15 W · 14 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick35cpaid+74.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under47c310$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.091,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under54c309.18$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.965448.1%26 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under48c267.33$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5812661.1%77 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under53c252.58$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.071,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over66c229.16$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0387154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked Under50c226.98$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Under48c201.51$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.721060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9414257.7%82 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under48c180$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.415060%90 W · 60 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under48c172.39$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1968150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over49c163.68$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.358043.6%253 W · 327 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under47c160$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.214459.7%86 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over46c157.3$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9439567.1%265 W · 130 L+60.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x9a54…7191backed Under48c151.67$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.82835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Under51c145.34$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.771040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+85.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce0f…5c9ebacked Over31c127.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over46c108.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3729460.5%178 W · 116 L+36.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+34.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under49c102.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3515458.4%90 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over46c101.91$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4231158.5%182 W · 129 L+27.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Over52c97.12$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.62922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under47c93.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9414459.7%86 W · 58 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9787…37dfbacked Over31c74.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.212842.9%12 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Over50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356065%39 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under50c60.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8378344.4%348 W · 435 L-30.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8858…ed3ebacked Under50c60.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0550%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.216955.6%94 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under57c58.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.321,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under48c56.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1712263.1%77 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under52c56.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9624859.3%147 W · 101 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under52c56.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9619255.2%106 W · 86 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under52c56.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9622263.1%140 W · 82 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under49c52.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9413046.2%60 W · 70 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over47c52.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5436051.9%187 W · 173 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f4…becdbacked Over52c50.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa223…0894backed Under50c48.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab0…1a16backed Under48c46.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.220849.5%103 W · 105 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.815259.9%91 W · 61 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.813560.7%82 W · 53 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over52c38.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6510754.2%58 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over43c37.66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5244350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecda…6f0abacked Under47c37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.392454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x503a…1e89backed Over52c36.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under56c35.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.638041.3%33 W · 47 L-11.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under48c34.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6316853.6%90 W · 78 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.113557.8%78 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2806…5feebacked Over52c24.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.97450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dd…69ddbacked Under50c24.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Under57c24.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbc…4632backed Over50c23.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.885100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d19…a694backed Over51c22.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa820…ba10backed Over49c20.58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under54c19.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.539234.4%135 W · 257 L-47.2wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-31%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0c04…c81abacked Over52c19.42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.