Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4d4432ca0a689c6a39dd1985ee8bdfa130dafb9c4e45eb6298d144ee7a39d03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 16c | 11,034$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,323.74 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 3,958$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,135.2 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 41c | 1,308$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.04 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 59c | 996.02$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.52 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 51c | 925.41$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.26 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 727.11$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.26 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 16c | 610.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.37 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under | 2c | 560$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 365.42$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.02 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 13c | 300$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 13c | 300$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 64c | 264.88$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.87 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Over | 15c | 256.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.63 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…895dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 71c | 190$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 41c | 183.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over | 31c | 154.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 56c | 136$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 73c | 134.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 26c | 133.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 70c | 129.67$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked Under | 50c | 116.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 45c | 101.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 32c | 98.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 42c | 98.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 44c | 96.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 44c | 88.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 56c | 87.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 60c | 79.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 33c | 75.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 33c | 71.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 44c | 69.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 34c | 58.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 48c | 55.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 32c | 51.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 68c | 50.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 53c | 37.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 66c | 34.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 78c | 31.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 56c | 28.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 60c | 26.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Under | 50c | 25.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Over | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f60…b078backed Under | 72c | 19.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.