Mls · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x006027bfdc3361102a9f2c5161e9f38ea3c08b9fda96c4ff3094f06f291cdabc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto FCof Philadelphia Union, Toronto FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto FC | 79c | 28,843$22,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,114.51 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Union | 18c | 13,214$2,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,423.23 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Philadelphia Union | 21c | 11,227$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.66 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Philadelphia Union | 33c | 2,726$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.31 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Philadelphia Union | 33c | 1,691$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.58 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked Philadelphia Union | 24c | 493$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Philadelphia Union | 57c | 242$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.32 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Philadelphia Union | 22c | 198.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Philadelphia Union | 16c | 145.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Philadelphia Union | 53c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Philadelphia Union | 24c | 83.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Philadelphia Union | 24c | 62.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Philadelphia Union | 21c | 61.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.