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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 22?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,272 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe019…f862backed Yes1c1,804$15 inLost-$15.528021.8%61 W · 219 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed Yes5c923.55$49 inLost-$49.242339.1%9 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick22cpaid+62.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8a0…4e39backed No61c326.53$200 inWon+$126.531573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c297.67$53 inLost-$53.396,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes16c171.67$27 inLost-$27.1655422.4%124 W · 430 L-21.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes32c126.67$41 inLost-$40.5356118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes19c124.99$24 inLost-$23.7541312.3%51 W · 362 L-0.5wins0.00per pick12cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c124.56$44 inLost-$44.2712,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c123.66$38 inLost-$38.2917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c119.02$20 inLost-$19.547,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes47c99.48$47 inLost-$47.1518550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…ad96backed Yes68c81.91$56 inLost-$55.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Yes36c69.07$25 inLost-$24.878124.7%20 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost-$16.52317.4%4 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes56c43.33$24 inLost-$24.4116634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes48c41.81$20 inLost-$2055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes54c36.85$20 inLost-$19.7317935.2%63 W · 116 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No58c36.78$21 inWon+$15.4218761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed No63c33.69$21 inWon+$12.491,10251.7%570 W · 532 L+74.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes61c28.63$18 inLost-$17.5657659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No52c25.6$13 inWon+$12.398160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc980…4e72backed Yes49c24$12 inLost-$11.765151%26 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-18.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes64c22.18$14 inLost-$14.21,01451.6%523 W · 491 L+108.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No49c20.83$10 inWon+$10.663,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.