NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb26fb629559f4bac053cf2502c29b6611587ea8fdd7e6c45c4d6ad81b81814ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cowboysof Packers, Cowboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Cowboys | 62c | 23,604$14,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,078.42 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Packers | 43c | 18,479$7,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,946.17 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Packers | 42c | 15,000$6,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,300 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Cowboys | 58c | 14,138$8,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,937.93 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Packers | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Packers | 43c | 1,063$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.28 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cowboys | 58c | 689.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.66 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cowboys | 57c | 530.35$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.18 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Cowboys | 57c | 516$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.88 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Packers | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Cowboys | 57c | 465.12$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Packers | 41c | 423.73$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.73 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…76e5backed Cowboys | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cowboys | 57c | 280.7$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Cowboys | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Packers | 43c | 164$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Packers | 28c | 144.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…94cfbacked Packers | 44c | 112.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Packers | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cowboys | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c8…97b8backed Cowboys | 58c | 34.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-7.5)this page
- Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5Over won
- Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5Over won
- Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-10.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)Cowboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.