NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x854a37e75d76e9b3fbc45cb1d3c9f3fa7fd6fb76f67ac211b0b480ec2fd18072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cowboysof Packers, Cowboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e93…a140backed Packers | 61c | 1,124$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Cowboys | 39c | 1,011$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.71 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Cowboys | 48c | 945$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.1 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Cowboys | 39c | 731.23$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.05 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Packers | 80c | 600$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Packers | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cowboys | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Packers | 60c | 217$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.02 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2954…d34ebacked Cowboys | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cowboys | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…9da7backed Packers | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Packers | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Packers | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…3006backed Packers | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Packers | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)this page
- Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5Over won
- Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5Over won
- Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-10.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Packers (-7.5)Cowboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.