NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Wizards
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb29fec1d3f3571dd1a9a4ac6fecf205761612ee315998e6041dff3ca5e4eb846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb228…2734backed Wizards | 15c | 6,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Heat | 78c | 4,773$3,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.32 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 22c | 2,400$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.05 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Wizards | 1c | 2,115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Wizards | 14c | 2,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Wizards | 12c | 1,851$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.03 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…3bffbacked Wizards | 8c | 1,550$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…0544backed Wizards | 5c | 1,240$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…c092backed Wizards | 3c | 1,134$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Wizards | 8c | 1,120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…8463backed Wizards | 17c | 1,102$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wizards | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…e0febacked Wizards | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cba…9f06backed Wizards | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d3…08adbacked Wizards | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6d…81c2backed Wizards | 4c | 681.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Wizards | 7c | 544.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 117 | 19.7%23 W · 94 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed Wizards | 8c | 523.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…8780backed Wizards | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Heat | 79c | 461.57$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…5d66backed Wizards | 9c | 397.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a49…413fbacked Wizards | 15c | 301.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Heat | 79c | 215.21$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…28fabacked Wizards | 15c | 206.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 224 | 30.8%69 W · 155 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Wizards | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Wizards | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 424 | 34.4%146 W · 278 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Heat | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Wizards | 20c | 145.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Wizards | 19c | 125.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…fa9bbacked Heat | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Wizards | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Wizards | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…3216backed Wizards | 22c | 99.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Wizards | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb1…f7eebacked Wizards | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd09…4198backed Wizards | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…1ff9backed Heat | 78c | 46.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Wizards | 24c | 46.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 164 | 44.5%73 W · 91 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…0f73backed Heat | 78c | 37.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7405…2797backed Heat | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…1fafbacked Heat | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…f959backed Heat | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…265fbacked Heat | 78c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2027backed Heat | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…ab13backed Heat | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…1ceebacked Heat | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed Heat | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…1304backed Heat | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.