Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2cf884299a115c23bedd8876cfeb435d3c206f508b33ac7a0287e94b75368b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 9c | 469.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.99 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 11c | 349.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 349.6$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 3c | 349.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 314.16$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.86 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 40c | 287.67$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 263.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 174.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…a164backed Yes | 14c | 155.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.41 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…a395backed Yes | 78c | 149.39$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49aa…9bd7backed Yes | 11c | 148.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 78c | 127.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 21c | 100.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 63.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 70c | 61.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 60.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed No | 76c | 40.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 34c | 37.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 31c | 36.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…8c5ebacked Yes | 28c | 36.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 46c | 34.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 24.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 24.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 17.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 79c | 12.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.