Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9111389e5f4f241263855b3fb0f8de561792f6a154ea136df5ebde494178e3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,313$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 526.83$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 506.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 49c | 448.48$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.07 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked No | 47c | 423.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.51 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 335.67$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 48c | 326.53$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.03 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 303.42$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 55c | 300.58$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 270.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 48c | 242.27$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 237.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 59c | 230$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed Yes | 51c | 222.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 56c | 199.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 17c | 174.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 42c | 172.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 167$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 55c | 159.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 53c | 141.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 54c | 131.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 129.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 121.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 42c | 119.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Yes | 59c | 119.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 59c | 108.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 47c | 105.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 11c | 103.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 41c | 83.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 49c | 67.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 63.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 65c | 62.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 56c | 59.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b41…1955backed Yes | 60c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…a1eabacked Yes | 60c | 55.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 52c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 53.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…9441backed No | 55c | 52.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 58c | 45.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 68c | 44.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 44c | 40.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 27c | 40.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 40c | 39.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 48c | 36.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 33.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 31.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 41c | 30.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 48c | 28.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 51c | 28.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 50c | 28.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 52c | 26.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 49c | 26.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 49c | 26.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 57c | 26.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 57c | 25.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 51c | 25.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 60c | 22.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 57c | 22.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 54c | 22.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed No | 72c | 21.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 60c | 20.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…0fb3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 19.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.