Middle East · resolved market
Fact Check: Flotilla hit by Israeli drone?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2d0cdd8f61e44f1eb2bd3d175b916e84b0d72eb9431af7df576638eca93ff28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 8c | 16,886$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.78 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 11c | 3,809$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.96 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 2,773$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…872dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,555$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.3 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 8c | 1,529$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…1baebacked Yes | 5c | 1,397$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…6264backed Yes | 5c | 1,376$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 8c | 1,126$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 12c | 1,026$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db8…5f0abacked Yes | 9c | 1,020$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…e866backed Yes | 4c | 938.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 5c | 923.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 6c | 886$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 761.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 743.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 420.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 6c | 410$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbab…d671backed Yes | 4c | 402.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 16c | 390$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 332.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 6c | 320$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 310.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 7c | 275.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…8f37backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 6c | 248.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…7524backed Yes | 11c | 236.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 9c | 231.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 12c | 228.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cc…5130backed Yes | 13c | 219.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…21e8backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 9c | 198.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e0…8bf3backed Yes | 7c | 179.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81aa…2c39backed Yes | 15c | 136.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 10c | 106$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e4…e01ebacked Yes | 13c | 104.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc085…82fabacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…6f89backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.