Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2e418bb3c4a4a607eaea81631b728d34a9833044aecc6f9bb330fe094eb98eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Nemiga Gaming, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef26…05babacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 4,999$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.66 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 1,920$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.24 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 1,772$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 1,320$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.86 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 1,237$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.18 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 1,201$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.72 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 1,089$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 1,016$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.85 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nemiga Gaming | 32c | 809$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.48 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 777.22$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.59 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 704.86$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.51 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 669.44$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.77 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 528.42$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 399.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 383.89$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3540…3c49backed Nemiga Gaming | 29c | 374.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed Nemiga Gaming | 16c | 373.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c3…d67dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 360$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85a…960ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 353.45$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 315.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…1b00backed Nemiga Gaming | 24c | 287.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…5d73backed Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 272.59$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 260$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 241.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 218.81$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 212.98$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…b72bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 211.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…f884backed Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Nemiga Gaming | 27c | 145.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 135.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 129.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 121.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 120.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…a8d8backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 114$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…5f8ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 112.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 104.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 125 | 59.2%74 W · 51 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…8532backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 103.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 95.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 95.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 93.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…c262backed Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 72.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Nemiga Gaming | 33c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 35.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Nemiga Gaming | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81bd…551fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 23.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…9fa1backed Nemiga Gaming | 58c | 22.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 300 | 54.7%164 W · 136 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 18.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Ilbirs eSports | 64c | 18.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - EPL Masters Group AIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Game 3: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.