TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,957

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,559 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37be…5a65backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005459.3%32 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c618.46$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.518,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c346.46$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked No66c317.67$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.8331043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c306.37$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c273$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.864,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes48c242$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.222040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes18c226$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5818337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No65c222.75$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.881,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c193.06$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.264,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x828b…87a6backed Yes30c187.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.937441.9%31 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes13c184$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.785,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes6c165$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.396073.3%20 W · 587 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes51c161.96$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5546743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes20c160.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.793,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes20c155$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5365625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c152.07$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes47c149.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.487,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes23c145.04$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No59c134.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.828068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No55c127.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.691,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf8…8dcbbacked Yes38c121.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.62343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…3a35backed Yes50c113.47$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.510536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes39c110.87$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.571,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5637…21f4backed No61c99.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393938.5%15 W · 24 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed No70c96$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8542643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd10…99b9backed Yes45c95.47$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.25752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes41c93.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0552533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes48c93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4366758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes39c92.47$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.816934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes42c92$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9947738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c90.5$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.865,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3051631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes54c82.64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.552,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes38c81.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.475,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c8…b823backed No48c72.89$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.024271.4%30 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes40c69.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5445236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes35c68.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.311,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5965…33b5backed No66c66.34$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.343161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c65.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7b23…1bc5backed No61c65.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.581838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes56c65.55$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.453,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2b…bf2abacked No77c64.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.896264.5%40 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes55c63.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6222350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes31c59.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.512,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.855,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes43c57.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6432738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No52c53.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.732,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No70c52.84$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.856163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2117555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.143,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.512735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No59c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.581,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes44c49.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9382742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes39c49.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No56c47.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes40c45.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.179,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes40c40.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.432,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes46c39.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.227356.2%41 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3288…b8cebacked Yes33c38.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.617728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3582…65c6backed Yes32c37.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.07714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-79.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.24,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e1…77debacked Yes55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84548.9%22 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes44c35.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.941,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes51c34.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.861,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed No61c32.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.625058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No58c32.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.543,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.931219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x76f1…06fbbacked No59c29.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.25763.2%36 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No55c29.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4917744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No48c27.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0818878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes54c27.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.534,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No58c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0879255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes42c24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0816324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No52c23.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.193,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebda…75a9backed No64c22.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.121722.6%49 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7603…2276backed No46c22.22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1214674.7%109 W · 37 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x587c…603fbacked No56c22.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.765671.4%40 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No46c22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8627769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No57c19.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.542,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa63f…a744backed No60c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae3…8262backed No79c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.782466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.