NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb304e502df01d52ed0ec23ae84f225d53470fc37cd8d765e31008ca948c96fe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,003 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6775…f08fbacked Over | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…3083backed Over | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 20c | 229.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…db46backed Under | 22c | 149.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 78c | 110.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…da65backed Over | 80c | 64.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 79c | 63.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 24c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -13.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 78c | 42.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b15…7af7backed Over | 77c | 27.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 78c | 17.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaab…aeacbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 68cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5this page
- Rangers vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Rangers won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.