NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe65d4d87e265e673f413f175f9f26a0bb9570de9c35f737aa2d5956fe369fb83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,785 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 43c | 5,954$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,531.84 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 58c | 4,261$2,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.58 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Over | 59c | 2,441$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.68 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 1,710$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.59 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f4…49a6backed Over | 57c | 1,300$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3d…4b1dbacked Over | 57c | 1,100$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 1,048$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.16 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 43c | 952.4$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.53 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 31c | 863$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.66 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 655.17$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.17 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 57c | 402.02$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.18 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 42c | 239$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 64c | 222.88$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 24c | 197.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 44c | 181.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 171.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 41c | 153.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 151.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 56c | 139.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c23…9d76backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 42c | 99.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 56c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 67c | 80.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…10f6backed Under | 44c | 78.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 42c | 77.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…4d2abacked Over | 67c | 74.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…c57abacked Under | 44c | 68.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 65.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 20c | 62.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 21c | 54.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 67c | 52.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Over | 58c | 48.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5955backed Under | 44c | 46.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 58c | 37.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…4132backed Under | 44c | 34.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 44c | 30.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 146 | 50%73 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 42c | 30.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Under | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 56c | 24.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Over | 55c | 22.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…c3a3backed Over | 57c | 20.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8df…0299backed Over | 57c | 18.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 80c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Rangers vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Rangers won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.