NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61d0c0c419cae4efacea31def4e308a04f4016673b2daea2add23436aa003d11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,899 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f2e…acb3backed Under | 75c | 1,900$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…0b47backed Under | 73c | 1,150$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b2…f51bbacked Under | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f4…49a6backed Under | 73c | 730$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd878…f59ebacked Under | 73c | 650$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Under | 76c | 500$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.45 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…1409backed Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 28c | 350.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.99 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 67c | 334$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 35c | 308.25$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 25c | 285.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 44c | 209.52$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…f08fbacked Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 24c | 157.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 32c | 118.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 71c | 114$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2df…0ef8backed Over | 26c | 106$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2a…e7cebacked Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Under | 70c | 85.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…5dc1backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 64c | 73.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 23c | 72.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 29c | 65.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 25c | 45.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…9b19backed Under | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…f71bbacked Under | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 35c | 39.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 30c | 35.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 76c | 28.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 71c | 26.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 23.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7d…0f5bbacked Under | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 78c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Under | 78c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5this page
- Rangers vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Rangers won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.