NHL · resolved market
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87025ec846ff6565e708f086c367066f681e7c85f438596452ec372d37812cf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Rangers, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,978 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa31c…0f0cbacked Rangers | 30c | 2,100$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 1,367$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.18 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…40e3backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 1,320$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 998.57$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.57 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Rangers | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Rangers | 32c | 932.83$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.42 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…efb8backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rangers | 30c | 347.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rangers | 32c | 250.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Rangers | 32c | 149.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Rangers | 33c | 144.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 111.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 97.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rangers | 28c | 85.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…5ce1backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 72.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Rangers | 32c | 67.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Rangers | 30c | 51.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Maple Leafs | 74c | 51.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 43.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 30.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Rangers vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.