Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb31c683821b8d49c451440bde37b40ca1184760287ed84292d366a5db1fe6591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 0c | 4,359$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 594.63$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 309.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.3 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…c9a0backed No | 50c | 280.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.83 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 48c | 264.58$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.36 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 80c | 147$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 73c | 145.38$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 135$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 47c | 124.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 109.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 76c | 107.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 59c | 104.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 99.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 99.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 50c | 78.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 46c | 76.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 42c | 71.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 68.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef33…6be3backed No | 74c | 67.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +530.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 42c | 60.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…6afbbacked Yes | 55c | 58.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 44.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 29c | 43.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 26c | 42.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 41.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 41.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 41c | 33.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 29.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 71c | 26.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 21.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 69c | 21.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.