Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb353b2242e555d9bc7c0b3cfc3ad72e500c7a434f4b4552bce50eb9af874859d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 711.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 4c | 679.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 571.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 6c | 283.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 67c | 228.24$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 197.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 24c | 190.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked No | 72c | 134.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 127.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 113.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 98.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 32c | 97.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 71.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 28c | 69.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 27c | 65.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 33c | 65.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…dd2bbacked No | 76c | 64.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 33c | 55.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 35c | 53.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 51.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 67c | 44.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 78c | 43.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 67c | 41.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c7…485abacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 71c | 31.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 74c | 29.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 67c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 72c | 22.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.