TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,327 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60ad…545dbacked No12c789.87$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.151729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+89.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No49c512.14$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes72c449.02$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.685,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No17c348.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2474926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1103…57e3backed Yes66c322.58$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.546355.6%35 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9733…be31backed Yes62c293.99$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.017250%36 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes42c282.46$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.126823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f4…665ebacked No66c208.34$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5114264.1%91 W · 51 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes41c167.88$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8111249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed No57c167.43$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2129748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked No59c161.47$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.946946.4%32 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes42c160.61$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.381,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes70c156.68$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4419338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes30c154.57$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5445238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc75…db4dbacked Yes51c146.95$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.42650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…4fd0backed No65c138.72$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.755050%25 W · 25 L-10.5wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes42c135.14$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5719648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes57c133.3$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.491,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes42c127.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c2…4302backed Yes40c116.27$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes47c109.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6447432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No65c108.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2323035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes38c105.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8816626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes41c104.47$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.151537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes35c104.16$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.841,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes34c103.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.642,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes43c98.69$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2510936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No64c98.26$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6444646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7b…b21ebacked Yes43c94.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes23c92.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1756118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb311…eadfbacked Yes52c92.11$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.533545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c91.22$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.569,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes40c86$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7219022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfff9…a21abacked No66c85.43$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.998138.3%31 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00ac…c678backed Yes28c83.41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.211241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes64c81.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5765627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c79.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes41c67.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9426738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…401ebacked No59c67.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.956959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c67.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes43c66.01$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6427744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c65.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.342,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c64.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes46c62.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5511362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No67c61.03$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.971,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.81,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes34c59.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.562626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes36c56.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes34c56.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9940739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No60c50.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3097570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86f6…9384backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.527540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6de…9452backed Yes41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.58428.6%24 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes39c47.87$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.097736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes33c47.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.82420.8%5 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No60c47.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3362770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No22c45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes44c44.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3725037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes37c44.75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.192025%5 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No36c44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc203…1ad2backed Yes34c41.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.261827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x327f…2c55backed Yes51c39.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.442020%4 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No66c39.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.292,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No59c37.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.022,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes38c37.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3935133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No60c36.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8221676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No45c33.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2819547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes52c33.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0718255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes43c33.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9940242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No59c32.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1819772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes75c28.55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.141,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No59c26.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.881,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e4…feb3backed Yes39c26.59$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122a…aba4backed No74c24.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No62c23.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No59c22.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2227464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a9…2227backed No67c17.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67173.2%52 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.