Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c4871a3e1c3042aea49400e7c91c225a87dde20495d2e33ae0fa630adab3ad9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 368.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 30c | 359.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 29c | 303.07$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 27c | 267.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 232.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 29c | 226.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 37c | 205.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 29c | 202.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 193.53$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 27c | 183.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 25c | 166.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 17c | 163.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 73c | 157.72$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 13c | 154.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 154.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 153.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 24c | 152.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 44c | 142.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 68c | 141.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 28c | 141.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 73c | 132.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 15c | 125.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 20c | 114.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 13c | 112.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 27c | 102.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 22c | 99.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…26e1backed Yes | 13c | 98.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +668%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 20c | 97.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 46c | 96.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 90.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 14c | 84.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 28c | 81.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 66c | 69.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…db4dbacked Yes | 55c | 69.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1300…78b1backed No | 60c | 69.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 26c | 68.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e9…59f9backed Yes | 20c | 67.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 66.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…3081backed Yes | 17c | 64.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 36c | 62.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…8292backed No | 60c | 58.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 27c | 55.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59dd…7cffbacked Yes | 19c | 54.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 51.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…2c55backed Yes | 55c | 51.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ba…4da2backed No | 53c | 50.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed No | 80c | 49.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed No | 77c | 47.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 43.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 64c | 38.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 37c | 35.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed No | 63c | 34.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 30.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 36c | 28.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 22.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…b03bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3b…7d7bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 56c | 19.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 80c | 16.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.