Earnings · resolved market
Will Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb353f06fdefb69d9a37bac9f450cc8f7caf369df53cb4c475783635f4c86a8a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 24c | 1,050$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.47 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,022$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.34 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe835…fd43backed No | 28c | 400.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 24c | 339.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 24c | 210.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98e…3c54backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 24c | 169$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 78c | 166.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 25c | 156.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…6f9dbacked No | 28c | 152.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 19c | 147$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 75c | 133.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…317abacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…7f2dbacked Yes | 77c | 130.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…0664backed Yes | 77c | 129.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765c…dbb6backed Yes | 77c | 111.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 76c | 97.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 23c | 85.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 25c | 80.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…1f9fbacked Yes | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 23c | 73.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 79c | 71.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…9c10backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd1…8919backed Yes | 76c | 62.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf53…4aecbacked Yes | 64c | 62.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…a582backed Yes | 77c | 61.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 22c | 45.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…0f7cbacked No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d1…b9ffbacked Yes | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…1d3cbacked Yes | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1d27backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…c35dbacked Yes | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…740bbacked Yes | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab48…30bebacked Yes | 77c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.